Spoiler alert, Liverpool win the league. Allez.
With a rather large break in Premier League action, the team at Opta have been busy crunching the numbers to simulate how the rest of the season would pan out.
“How exactly have they worked this all out?” I hear you ask.
Well, here’s everything you need to know about the method behind their madness:
• An estimation of each match outcome based off each team’s attacking and defensive quality.
• The team’s attacking and defensive qualities are based on four years of historic results, with more weighting given to their most recent results.
• The model will take into account the quality of the opposition that a team scores or concedes against and reward them accordingly.
• Using goal predictions from the Poisson distribution (Yep, Google it) with the two teams’ attacking and defending qualities as inputs.
• Simulating the outcome of the season 10,000 times in order to estimate the likelihood of each team finishing in each league position.
Get it? Sort of? Yep, same here.
Obviously this is far from guaranteed to happen, but it’s the closest we’re getting to a conclusion to this current season right now.
According to the simulation, Liverpool win the title with 101 points, an all-time Premier League record total. Stick that in your cabinet.
The closest rivals to Jurgen Klopp’s side are Man City, who miss out by 21 points, the biggest-ever gap between the top two teams in a Premier League season. Ouch.
City can feel slightly aggrieved to come out second best though, as their 80-point tally would have been enough to win the title in six previous seasons. Every cloud, I guess?
Leicester, Chelsea, Man United and Spurs make up the rest of the top six, while Wolves secure a second 7th-placed finish in as many season.
Arsenal fans, look away now… according to Opta, the Gunners will end the season all the way down in 8th spot. Gulp.
At the foot of the table, Watford avoid relegation by the skin of their teeth, with Bournemouth, Aston Villa and Norwich all dropping down to the Championship.
Feel free to celebrate/commiserate at your club’s final standing, we won’t judge you.
The robots have spoken. This is life now.