England fans were probably sleeping pretty easy last night.
The draw for the group stage at the Russia world Cup next summer was very kind to Gareth Southgate’s team.
The Three Lions will play Belgium, Tunisia and Panama in Group G.
We’ve basically won it.
Hold on, the wizards at Opta are actually saying it might not be that easy.
In fact they have got England as the 11th most likely team to win the World Cup with just a 1.9% chance of winning the tournament.
That can’t be right can it?
It is right, and to make matters worse Opta says England have less chance of taking home the Jules Rimet trophy than Japan.
Japan, who have never got past the round of 16, are more likely to win the tournament than an England side containing Harry Kane, Marcus Rashford and Raheem Sterling.
We’re struggling to work this one out.
The Japanese also have a very difficult group containing Poland, Colombia and Senegal.
In addition if they were to win or qualify from the group it is likely they would play Belgium or England.
Brazil are the favourites with a 14.2% chance, followed by Germany and Argentina who are neck and neck on 11.4% and 10.9% respectively.
Poland have the lowest chance of winning it from the Pot 1 teams according to Opta with just a slimmer of hope with 1.5% chance of being crowned world champions.
Ah well, who ever listened to statistics?