The World Cup draw is upon us on Friday.
It normally spells a very nervy time for England fans.
While the footballing gods have been kind to us it recent tournaments, it’s never been as straightforward as it seems.
Now one Twitter user has worked out what England’s most likely group looks like based on 20,000,000 simulations.
@MisterChiping has put together a mind boggling graph of all the possible permutations and their likelihoods ahead of the draw in Russia on Friday.
The news for England is a mixed bag.
Let’s start with the good news, England are least likely to draw France from Pot 1 in the group stage.
Great, so that means we will not have to cower behind the sofa as Jordan Henderson and Jake Livermore go toe-to-toe with N’Golo Kante and Paul Pogba.
The bad news is that, according to the statistics, Gareth Southgate’s team are most likely to draw either Brazil or Argentina from the top eight teams.
So that’s either Neymar, Phillipe Coutinho and Gabriel Jesus or Lionel Messi, Paulo Dybala and Sergio Aguero.
Start preparing to finish at least second in the group stage.
Further down the pots Costa Rica are the most probable draw from the third tier of teams.
And from the bottom pool of countries the research suggest England will miss the likes of Nigeria and Serbia who are the big dangers in Pot 4.
Central Americans Panama are thrown up as the most likely fourth team in the group.
While there aren’t any star names in the Panama team, it is still a side that denied the USA a chance to play in a World Cup.
So based on the computer equivalent of Albert Einstein and Stephen Hawking’s lovechild England’s group looks like this: Brazil or Argentina (both 20% chance), Costa Rica (17%) and Panama (15.5%).
On the other hand, throwing all reasonable research out of the window, we could get Poland, Iran and Saudi Arabia.