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How many goals do Harry Kane and others need to score every season to break Alan Shearer’s record?

The Newcastle legend's tally of 260 goals is a long way off for any of the current crop but what exactly do Harry Kane and co have to do to get close?

Alan Shearer’s Premier League goal record has stood for eleven years.

And it’ll stand for a good few more years yet.

The Newcastle legend’s tally of 260 is as impressive as it is intimidating for his modern day equivalents.

We had the pleasure of witnessing this celebration time and time again

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We had the pleasure of witnessing this celebration time and time again

Here we look at what a selection of current Premier League forwards have to do if they are to do the unthinkable and break Shearer’s record.

For the purposes of *science* we are going to say that all the candidates will play until they are 35, the same age Shearer was when his knees gave up once and for all.

Wayne Rooney

Manchester United captain Wayne Rooney has not been included in the squad

Rex Features
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Never forget that Rooney has scored a shed-load of Premier League goals

Why not start with the Premier League’s second all-time top scorer?

Rooney’s prosperous return to Everton has taken his total tally to 208.

At 31-years-old he’s got four seasons left to get there, meaning he has to average 13 goals per campaign.

How likely? Not particularly

Unfortunately Wazza’s powers have diminished significantly in the last two years and his deeper role means another Shearer’s throne is almost probably out of reach.

Sergio Aguero

Sergio Aguero has fallen behind Gabriel Jesus in the Manchester City pecking order

EPA
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Still the best…

The Man City star is a proven goalscorer in England having bagged 134 goals in 195 league games.

Now 29-years-old Aguero will have to get a move on as he requires an average of 21 goals per season from now until he’s 35.

How likely? Not very…

The Argentine finisher is injury prone and is already under threat from the likes of Gabriel Jesus in terms of a place in the starting XI.

Given that he needs to score the remaining 126 goals at a quicker rate than the 134 he got in his prime, we reckon Shearer’s total is too big of an ask for Aguero.

Romelu Lukaku

Back in the blue days

PA:Press Association
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Back in the blue days

The Belgian target man has plenty of years left in the tank.

He notched up 50 Premier League goals before his 24th birthday and therefore needs to average 18 goals every season from the start of the current campaign until he’s 35.

How likely? Could be worth a punt…

Bold gamblers may fancy a fiver on this but finishing among the top scorers for over a decade straight is a huge ask, especially for a physical unit like Lukaku.

Gabriel Jesus/Marcus Rashford (any promising young forward really)

Gabriel Jesus has been prolific for Manchester City in his brief time in England

Rex Features
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The face of the ever-present hopeful youngster stereotype

We’re using these two as a base model for any promising young forward starting out in the Premier League.

Bascially, what is the challenge that awaits you at the start of your career if you are ambitious enough to target Shearer’s record.

Rashford and Jesus need to average approximately 16 goals respectively for the remainder of their careers to reach the summit.

How likely? Way too early to say…

Both talented kids but we’ve seen many hopeful prospects start off well before falling over 200 goals short of the ever-enduring Shearer.

Longevity is everything.


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Harry Kane

Shearer’s biggest fear

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Shearer’s biggest fear

Here we go then, the main event.

After 93 goals in three and a half seasons we can officially label the Spurs forward as one of Europe’s most prolific forwards.

We’re giving Kane twelve seasons to play with and that means he needs to average 15 goals a year to usurp Shearer.

How likely? He’s got a chance…

Kane’s record has improved year on year which suggests he’s still maturing as a goalscorer.

He will undoubtedly be confident of breaking the 20-goal mark for the next three or four seasons at least which would take his average required down to 13.

Add in a couple of 30+ seasons, which isn’t out of the question at this stage if he stays injury-free, and all of a sudden it looks achievable.

Probably not the real Shearer

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Probably not the real Shearer

However, the main thing we’ve learned is that Shearer’s record is truly phenomenal.

A supremely gifted goalscorer will have to pull off a testing feat of endurance if they are to get close.

Alan, we salute you!