The FIFA 18 market crash is nigh – bringing with it a host of uncertainty.
But according to one FIFA fan, who also claims to have a background in finance, there’s an incredibly easy way to dominate the FUT market.
And if his theory is correct, you better start selling your players right now.
Reddit user patumadre used Min. BIN prices for Luka Modric in FIFA 16.
He chose a player who is similar on FIFA 17 to predict downward / upward trends more accurately.
The strategy he used required looking at the “moving average” of Modric’s price (as shown by the graph).
You’re looking for changes or shifts in the price of the player relative to its moving average.
So: “If the price line crosses DOWN the moving average, a sell signal is triggered, a downtrend is expected,” writes patumadre.
“If the price lines crosses UP the mov. average, a buy signal is triggered, an uptrend is expected.”
According to his graph, Modric’s price began a downward trend on November 9 2015, so you’d sell him then before too much value is lost.
The downward trend stopped around November 25 – the perfect time to buy.
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If patumadre‘s graph is anything to go by, the FIFA 18 market will begin a downward trend right now. And the best time to buy would be on Black Friday (November 27), or the day before.
One thing to consider, though, is the inclusion of Weekend Leagues – which massively increase the demands for high-rated cards.
What happens during a market crash? Does it happen every year?
Market crashes happen every year and follow a similar pattern.
In short, players values will slump heavily in the run up to Black Friday – and another smaller crash on Cyber Monday (November 28), dubbed ‘the crash after the crash’.
Between now and then, expect small fluctuations in player prices that’ll become more prominent in the coming days.
Why does a market crash happen?
A crash occurs when large numbers of the FIFA community start flogging top-rated players, flooding the market.
Demand remains the same, but as the supply increases players continuously try to undercut one another, resulting in stock value decreasing.
To compound the issue, on Black Friday EA usually releases something new every hour for 24 hours.
These range from multiple “Happy hours” (deals on players) to “Lightning rounds” in the FUT store.
How long will the crash last?
The FIFA 18 Black Friday event will run for three days – but its residual effects will likely be felt for two or there days post crash.
Cyber Monday’s crash will be smaller, but it’ll help maintain momentum and lower prices.
What players will be affected most by the crash?
Messi, Ronaldo and other tier-one gold players will see their value drop. Messi has already dropped five per cent, according to Futbin.
Other elite cards, those holding the most value, will suffer the greatest loss – although expect a ripple effect through the entire player roster.
Last year, Messi reportedly went for around 700k, while Neymar dropped to 280k.
When is best to buy?
The best time to buy is early in the day or during the week.
Weekends will see fierce competition for the better cards.
I have no idea what to do in the market crash… any pointers?
Check the player prices constantly.
If they’re 20 per cent – 30 per cent lower than normal price, this will be a good indicator that the market is at a low and a crash has occurred.
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Any other pointers?
1. It’s the perfect time to pick up some cheap players through auction, so stock up where and when you can
2. Visit Futbin to keep an eye on player prices pre-crash and monitor how much they’re dropping by to pick your time to buy / sell.
Good luck and happy trading!